VAT on fees: 'There's a real concern that damage is being done across independent education without any benefit to state schools'

Ms Robinson said: "There’s a combination of factors contributing to why schools may close, but for many, VAT has proved to be the bridge too far. We expect to see more school closures over the coming months and years, with the effects of VAT and other tax measures looming as the leading cause behind those closures. 

"Some schools are going to be absolutely fine, but those which aren’t are the ones we’re worried about. The data shows us that there can be 50 schools a year closing, but if we look at the context of that, those schools are usually really small – some with a single-figure roll or those who provide a specific type of specialist education. That’s not the case for most of the schools in the list of closures published this week.

"It’s not just about a raw number. It’s about the range of types of schools disappearing and what that means for children, families, and local communities – and the effect on local state schools, too. 

"The government’s tax policies have pushed them over the edge, on top of other factors. It’s absolutely true to say there’s no one individual factor exclusively at play here, but VAT is a big one and that’s what we’re being told by heads.

"This is a case of the government choosing to levy a 20 per cent additional tax on a section of society. It’s very unusual as a tax because education is tax-exempt, almost everywhere across the world. So, it’s not something that a school should expect to have to deal with. This is a complex thing to bring in, and it was brought in really, really quickly. [VAT on fees] only came in on 1 January and already over 50 schools are reportedly closing, so it’s made a huge difference.

"We know there are huge pinch points across the country, certain areas lacking spaces in state schools. There is a big concern that the state system won’t be able to accommodate the children displaced from independent schools. 

"The number who have moved this year already is four times what the government predicted. The government predicted that 3,000 children would be displaced from independent schools into the state system this academic year. We know from DfE figures that in England alone it’s 11,000, so that is significantly more. 

"We know [the decline in pupil numbers] is caused by VAT because of the timing; these are children who have come off the roll since September, since VAT was announced to be coming in in January. So that’s this academic year, and we don’t normally see a drop in pupil numbers of that kind.

"What we saw in the DfE’s numbers was that independent schools this January were down by 1.9%, in comparison with state school pupil numbers down by 0.7% – so we think that different is the effect of VAT.

"What’s really unfortunate is that there was this promise that money would be raised [by the VAT policy] that would transform state education. That promise has been watered down significantly over the past six months, including the prime minister tweeting that the money would instead be going towards housing. So there’s a real concern that damage is being done across independent education without any benefit to state schools – in fact, it's putting more pressure on state schools."