ISC spokesperson: 'Parents who are affording the fees, but not comfortably - those are the families we are worried about'

Referencing the high-net-worth individuals surveyed by the Saltus Wealth Index, Ms Cunnane said: "They don't represent the majority of our parents who are dual-income households, who are affording the fees but not comfortably - those are the families that, frankly, we are really worried about. 

"If families of high net worth are saying that they're going to be taking out their children in these numbers, you have to wonder how it's going to be for the far more typical family in choosing an independent school for their child."

She went on to explain how around a third of pupils attending ISC schools receive some form of financial assistance, and many families resort to downsizing, taking on extra jobs, or taking out a second mortgage in order to afford the fees.

Reflecting on the reasons why people choose independent education for their children, Ms Cunnane said: "There's a number of parents who choose it because it is better for their child who has some sort of additional need; they might need bilingual education; or they might like the alternative education that our sector offers, such as Montessori and Steiner schools. There's a whole host of reasons why people choose independent schools, and in the end they see it as the best for their child in the long run."

On the issue of pupil movement, Ms Cunnane cited findings from an ISC survey conducted in September last year, saying: "We saw that 10,540 children had left the sector already, a further 2,500 had given notice [to leave in January] - and this is right at the start of September, so we expect that to have increased. That's nearly 13,000 children leaving independent schooling; the government estimates were 3,000, so you can see that the government numbers on this are already way off.

"We know from looking at the rise in pupil numbers over the past 10 years this was the biggest drop we'd ever seen, and the only thing that had changed was the election of a Labour government who had pledged to put VAT on fees.

"We know that the cost-of-living crisis has been going on for a number of years, and we would expect that if the cost-of-living crisis, Covid, Brexit had had a sustained impact on pupil numbers, we would have seen that impact over time. In reality, what we saw was a sudden drop in this academic year - and the only thing that had changed between 2023 and 2024 was that VAT policy.

"Already we're hearing of councils who don't have spaces for these children anymore. We expect that in September that will be exacerbated even further."